The Golden Globes are drunk, and here’s a picture of Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman getting trashed at… the Invictus table?… to prove it. Or, you know, just remember when they gave Bohemian Rhapsody Best Picture two years ago. This annual ceremony of fuckery is presided over by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an 87-member collective of people who love throwing parties for celebrities and then giving awards to whoever is most famous (see: Jennifer Lawrence beating Lupita Nyong’o for American Hustle).
The Globes have no overlap with the Oscars in terms of voting body. In the coming two months of this extended awards season, the various guilds (Screen Actors, Directors, and Producers being the most high-profile) will hold their award ceremonies in the run-up to Oscar night, giving a more accurate assessment of how the industry is leaning this year. But the Globes can increase momentum and set trends; just last year, all four eventual acting winners at the Oscars began their steamrolling through wins at Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA with wins at this drunken shit-show.
All this to say that the Golden Globes are fiendishly difficult to predict, given that it’s the first of the major awards and up until now, nerds like me could only theorize about who had front-runner status. The best thing to do is think like a drunk foreign journalist who thinks Bohemian Rhapsody is excellent filmmaking and will stop at nothing to get Johnny Depp to hang out with you…
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
- The Father
- Mank
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Four of these movies have nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay, with at least one acting nomination to boot. You can probably safely count out The Father (although anything’s possible), and although Mank has the most nominations, I see it charting a similar path to last year’s The Irishman: lots of nominations, no wins. The presumed frontrunner all year has been Nomadland, but while it’s my favorite of the nominees, I just don’t see it happening. Too slow, too languid, and not the crowd-pleaser that usually wins here. That leaves The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman, with smart money being on the rah-rah feel-good Americana of the former. But the latter really over-performed at the Globes, and I could see its candy-coated darkness winning them over.
Will win: Promising Young Woman
Could win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Nomadland
Should’ve been nominated: First Cow
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
There’s some thought that maybe Chadwick doesn’t take this and it actually goes to Anthony Hopkins, but I think that’s just prediction-boredom happening. This has been Chadwick’s since the movie first debuted, and it’s his all season long.
Will win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Could win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Should‘ve been nominated: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
The HFPA clearly loves Promising Young Woman, and if it wins nothing else it’s most certainly winning this, kickstarting a path for Mulligan to finally clinch a much-deserved win.
Will win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Could win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Should’ve been nominated: Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Hamilton
- Music
- Palm Springs
- The Prom
There’s no doubt about what should win here, but while it would be very nice to call Borat a Best Picture winner, I just have a hard time believing the HFPA went through the weird trouble of nominating Hamilton only to send it home empty-handed. When a high-profile musical is nominated here, it wins, and even though it’s just a filmed version of the stage show, there’s still little content buzzier than Lin’s magnum opus.
Will win: Hamilton
Could and should win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should’ve been nominated: I mean, if we’re nominating stage shows, the winner is David Byrne’s American Utopia
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
- Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- James Corden, The Prom
- Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
- Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
- Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
He won for the first one, and he’s gonna win for the sequel. No actor is hotter this year than Sacha, and even if he doesn’t win in his other two categories, this is basically a lock.
Will and should win: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Could win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Should’ve been nominated: Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Kate Hudson, Music
- Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
- Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
- Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Every year, there’s one performance I throw my entire support behind. Last year it was Pesci in The Irishman, this year it’s Maria Bakalova’s inspired turn as Borat’s daughter Tutar in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. It’ll be the crime of the century if she doesn’t win this in a walk, but look out for Globes favorite Rosamund Pike
Will and should win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Could win: Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Should’ve been nominated: Rachel McAdams, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Jared Leto, The Little Things
- Bill Murray, On the Rocks
- Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…
This is an extremely tricky one. As stated above, Sacha Baron Cohen is the man of the year, and I think come Oscar time this is where he’s rewarded. Of course, the Globes have multiple other chances to reward him and so could go down another avenue here, most likely with Leslie Odom, Jr. or Daniel Kaluuya.
Will win: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could and should win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Should’ve been nominated: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Helena Zengel, News of the World
Another tough one – the two critical darlings aren’t here, Minari‘s Youn Yuh-jung having been snubbed and Maria Bakalova being in Lead on the Comedy side of things. It’d be great to see Amanda Seyfried win here, but the two big showy performances are Glenn’s and Olivia’s, mirroring their Wife and Favourite smackdown from two years ago. I still have a hard time believing anyone wants to reward the awfulness that is Hillbilly Elegy, but of course no one ever was wrong overestimating the HFPA’s lack of taste. Still, I feel like Olivia Colman is a classic win here – a solid performance by a well-loved performer, with a healthy dose of crying scenes.
Will win: Olivia Colman, The Father
Could win: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Should win: Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Should’ve been nominated: Bel Powley, The King of Staten Island
BEST DIRECTOR
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher, Mank
- Regina King, One Night in Miami…
- Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
I suppose Fincher could take this, but is the HFPA really going to finally nominate a majority of women in this category and give it to a man? That, combined with the fact that Chloe should 100% be walking away with this award all season, and the winner is clear.
Will and should win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Could win: David Fincher, Mank
Should’ve been nominated: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
BEST SCREENPLAY
- The Father – Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller
- Mank – Jack Fincher
- Nomadland – Chloe Zhao
- Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
- The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin
My go-to here for the Globes is always pick the most writerly film. My go-to here when Aaron Sorkin is nominated is pick his movie.
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could win: Promising Young Woman
Should win: Mank
Should’ve been nominated: I’m Thinking of Ending Things
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Fight For You,” Judas and the Black Messiah
- “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7
- “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead
- “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…
- “Tigress & Tweed,” The United States vs. Billie Holiday
This is just a horrendous category, but it’s definitely cool Leslie Odom, Jr. is gonna nab a win here.
Will and should win: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…
Could win: “Tigress & Tweed,” The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Should’ve been nominated: “Husavik (My Hometown),” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Mank – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
- The Midnight Sky – Alexandre Desplat
- News of the World – James Newton Howard
- Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
- Tenet – Ludwig Goransson
I suppose there is room for a Tenet surprise here, but this is probably between the two Trent & Atticus scores. Go with the one in the movie about music.
Will win: Soul
Could and should win: Mank
Should’ve been nominated: Minari
BEST ANIMATED FILM
- The Croods: A New Age
- Onward
- Over the Moon
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
I don’t think there’s much competition here.
Will win: Soul
Could and should win: Wolfwalkers
Should’ve been nominated: Not the greatest year for this category.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- Another Round
- La Llorona
- The Life Ahead
- Minari
- Two of Us
Someday the HFPA will rectify their bizarre rules that bar nominees here from being considered for Best Picture, as well as the ones that include American films like The Farewell and Minari. Alas, this does seem like an easy win for Minari.
Will and should win: Minari (although if we’re actually talking International Film, the winner should be Another Round)
Could win: Another Round
Should’ve been nominated: Bacurau
And, just for shiggles, here’s my TV picks, with no analysis.
Best Drama Series: The Crown
Best Drama Actress: Olivia Colman, The Crown
Best Drama Actor: Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
Best Musical/ Comedy Series: Ted Lasso
Best Musical/ Comedy Actress: Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Best Musical/ Comedy Actor: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Best Limited Series: The Queen’s Gambit
Best Limited Series/ TV Movie Actress: Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
Best Limited Series/ TV Movie Actor: Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much is True
Best Supporting Actress: Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Thank you for your time, now let’s see what shit goes down this year.
FLICKBAIT. a film blog by Kyle Wilson 