This Guy’s Oscar Blog 2022 – Week 1

You drooled for Nomadland. You were a total simp for Mank. And now, the Oscars have returned, this time with sandworms. It’s the most wonderful time of the year for me – a time when I ask myself to let go of every personal feeling about the movies I’ve loved this year and own up to the fact that Baby Annette will regrettably not be winning Best Supporting Actress.

The Oscars are totally ridiculous and instigate artificial competition between movies that have nothing to do with each other except they were released in the same year (although if anyone can find a correlation between Tenet and Hillbilly Elegy, get at me). And yet, if you’ve watched this space for the last however may years, you know I love trying to figure out what the hell is actually going to happen. So snort some spice, get your Jane Campion stan T-shirt on, and let’s fucking do this.

NOTE: As always, I will only be including titles that I have seen. This is partially because I just think it’s fair, and partially because I want to imagine a world where Nicolas Cage actually could get nominated for Pig.

BEST PICTURE

Needless to say, there’s lots still to come, and on principle I’m not including anything that either hasn’t been released yet or that I haven’t seen. So even if West Side Story winds up sweeping in at the last minute and kicking everyone’s asses, you will not find it here.

At present, we’ve got two main frontrunners: Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune. Honestly, I don’t see either taking Best Picture in March. Dune will have a big nomination and win haul, but I think its ceiling will be Director, and while Power of the Dog is destined to be the critics’ darling of the year, its opaque (to some) storytelling and slow burn vibe isn’t going to gel with everyone.

Still, between the two, Dune is the likely winner at present. Its technical proficiency will make it a favorite for craftspeople, and its likable (and large) ensemble makes it actor-friendly, despite the likelihood of no performance nominations. Add to all that a strong box office and its pro-theatrical release narrative and it’s not an impossible winner.

Something like The Tragedy of Macbeth or Parallel Mothers could find its way in here, though I think the former is likely to be more admired than loved and the latter would need to surprise in several categories to get its slot. Crowdpleasers like In the Heights and CODA are ones to keep an eye on; particularly now that there are an even ten slots, they may be so different from the main crop of potential nominees that they stand out to voters.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. CODA
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Parallel Mothers
6. In the Heights

Still waiting on: Belfast, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Flee, C’mon C’mon, Don’t Look Up, A Hero, House of Gucci, tick, tick… BOOM!

Wishful thinking: Annette, Pig, Titane

BEST DIRECTOR

Barring a completely possible Kenneth Branagh win (I still maintain that, while the rest of the Academy could go all in for that movie, the director’s branch could recuse itself), we’ve probably seen our winner already, and it’s between Jane Campion and Denis Villeneuve. Critics will go Campion, but I actually think this is pretty much a slam-dunk for Villeneuve. From Alfonso Cuaron winning for Gravity to Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu’s victory for The Revenant, the Academy has talked itself into the somewhat flawed thinking that the biggest technical achievement of the year is synonymous with Best Director. Particularly after a year of small-scale, sedate movies, rewarding such a big, BIIIIIG swing seems inevitable.

My big swing here is legitimately predicting a Julia Ducournau nomination for Titane, which I actually don’t feel is entirely crazy. In fact, given the history of this branch and their increased selection of international candidates here, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ducournau winds up with a nomination despite the film being shut out of every other category (think David Lynch for Mulholland Drive and Blue Velvet), including International Feature. Still, lots left to come…

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
2. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
3. Julia Ducournau, Titane
4. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

Other contenders: Ridley Scott, The Last Duel; Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter; Rebecca Hall, Passing

Still waiting on: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast; Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard; Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza; Pablo Larrain, Spencer; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Steven Spielberg, West Side Story; Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee; Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up; Asghar Farhadi, A Hero; Ridley Scott, House of Gucci, Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick… BOOM!

My wishful thinking: Leos Carax, Annette; Michael Sarnoski, Pig; Oliver Hermanus, Moffie

BEST ACTOR

This seems likely to quickly turn into the Will Smith Show when King Richard is released. For the moment, his chief competitor is Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Denzel got really close to a third Oscar with Fences, and BOY does he feel like he should have one. It could happen here, I guess; he’s really incredible in the movie and he’s clearly beloved. But it remains to be seen just how much the Academy latches onto such a theatrical film. 

Elsewhere, Benedict is a lock for a nomination, and everyone else here would probably be a longshot, soon to be replaced by incoming candidates. A Chalamet coattail nod for Dune would be nuts, but not impossible. Nic Cage should absolutely be in here for Pig, but barring a complete sweep of critics prizes, it ain’t happening. And anyone who thinks New York Film Critics Circle isn’t going with Simon Rex for Red Rocket is drunk.

1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Nicolas Cage, Pig
4. Timothee Chalamet, Dune
5. Matt Damon, Stillwater

Other contenders: Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Still to come: Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon Cmon; Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey; Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley; Peter Dinklage, Cyrano; Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!; Leonardo Dicaprio, Don’t Look Up; Adam Driver, House of Gucci; Mahershala Ali, Swan Song; Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos; Jude Hill, Belfast; Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza; Amir Jadidi, A Hero; Simon Rex, Red Rocket

My wishful thinking: Adam Driver, Annette

BEST ACTRESS

I’ve gotta admit, I’m still a bit dubious about Kristen Stewart winning in this category, both because it feels more like a critics’ win than an Oscars one and because the movie feels destined to be a bit polarizing (I’m seeing it this weekend). 

The problem is, as of right now there’s no real threat. In fact, my top 3 choices all feel like they’d normally be jockeying for the fifth slot (they seem likely to be one of, if not the, only nominees for their films). Still, never count out Olivia Colman or Penelope Cruz. Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Hudson feel like traditional potential winners here, Chastain in particular, with her makeup-caked “transformation” and go-for-broke histrionics. But both films kind of came and went; it’ll take a savvy re-up of their campaigns to secure slots in what’s shaping up to be a late-breaking competitive race.

1. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
2. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Other contenders: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel; Emilia Jones, CODA; Tessa Thompson, Passing

Still waiting on: Kristen Stewart, Spencer; Lady Gaga, House of Gucci; Rachel Zegler, West Side Story; Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley; Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World; Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza; Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos; Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

My wishful thinking: Agathe Rousselle, Titane; Rachel Sennott, Shiva Baby

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

After clinching an 11 year-old Anna Paquin a Best Supporting Actress Oscar, Jane Campion could have another Young King nabbing the gold this year. Kodi Smit-McPhee makes a lot of sense as a potential winner here; even for someone more muted on the film like myself, he’s the best part. It all just depends on how this very amorphous race takes shape as more and more films are seen. 

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
4. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Vincent Lindon, Titane

Other contenders: Ben Affleck, The Last Duel; Adam Driver, The Last Duel

Still waiting on: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza; Ciaran Hinds, Belfast; Timothy Spall, Spencer; Richard Jenkins, The Humans; Jamie Dornan, Belfast; Jon Bernthal, King Richard; Jared Leto, House of Gucci; Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; David Alvarez, West Side Story; Mike Faist, West Side Story; Robin de Jesus, tick, tick… BOOM!; Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley; Kelvin Harrison Jr., Cyrano; Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up; Jason Isaacs, Mass; Rob Morgan, Don’t Look Up; Al Pacino, House of Gucci; Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up; Benny Safdie, Licorice Pizza

My wishful thinking: Simon Helberg, Annette; Alex Wolff, Pig; Corey Hawkins, In the Heights; Jimmy Smits, In the Heights

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Kirsten Dunst is at the front of the pack of what I’ve seen, although this is still a wide-open race (I’m looking out for Ariana DeBose and Rita Moreno in West Side Story), and Dunst’s big victory is likely to be clinching her first-ever nomination. 

Elsewhere, I’m staying optimistic about Marlee Matlin for CODA. And while I do think Passing will mostly whiff, don’t count out Ruth Negga, who’s easily the best part of it. Do count out Rebecca Ferguson for Dune; enough with the Ian McKellen as Gandalf comparisons! Denis doesn’t give fuck-all for his exceptional cast to do, and just about every moment McKellen has in Fellowship of the Ring was instantly iconic.

Keep an eye out for Kathryn Hunter, whose insane performance as the witches could easily pick up a few critics prizes at the end of the year. Her getting in would be fucking awesome.

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
2. Ruth Negga, Passing
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA
4. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
5. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Other contenders: Rebecca Ferguson, Dune;  Olga Merediz, In the Heights; Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

Still waiting on: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast; Judi Dench, Belfast; Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard; Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley; Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley; Ariana DeBose, West Side Story; Rita Moreno, West Side Story; Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up; Ann Dowd, Mass; Sally Hawkins, Spencer; Gaby Hoffman, C’mon C’mon; Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

My wishful thinking: Polly Draper, Shiva Baby; Milena Smit, Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I haven’t seen any of the major frontrunners here, so this is mainly a category of potential spoilers right now. We stan Pig though.

1. Parallel Mothers
2. Stillwater
3. Pig
4. Last Night in Soho
5. Titane

Still waiting on: Belfast; Licorice Pizza; C’mon C’mon; King Richard; The Worst Person in the World; Don’t Look Up; A Hero; Spencer; The Hand of God; Flee; Mass; Red Rocket

My wishful thinking: Annette; Bergman Island; No Man of God

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is probably going to The Power of the Dog, unless West Side Story goes for it right at the end. Don’t listen to anyone saying The Tragedy of Macbeth is getting in here.

1. The Power of the Dog
2. The Lost Daughter
3. CODA
4. The Last Duel
5. Passing

Other contenders: Dune; The Eyes of Tammy Faye; The Green Knight; Zola

Still waiting on: Nightmare Alley; House of Gucci; The Humans; Being the Ricardos; Cyrano; The Tender Bar; tick, tick… Boom!; West Side Story

My wishful thinking: Moffie; Shiva Baby